The current problem
The war on Iran, and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is already negatively affecting equitable access to a tertiary education. The worst-case scenario is that a resolution is not found and the Strait is not reopened, which leads to fuel rationing, disruptions to food production and distribution and shortages, and the eventual imposition of ‘work from home’ directives in many countries. This will disrupt on-campus educational delivery at a scale that will match Covid19. A canary in the coalmine is Bangladesh, which has already closed universities in the face of energy shortages.
But even if this worst-case scenario does not happen, and the transit of ships through the Strait resumes in the near future, the spike in general inflation that is already ‘priced in’ is going to radically affect equitable access to a tertiary education.
The coming challenge for tertiary institutions may even be more difficult than the shift to online delivery imposed during the Covid lockdowns. Some students will want on-campus delivery to continue if they are still able to access it, and this could result in an inequitable ‘two-tier’ delivery model in which many face-to-face students may be forced to shift to online study while others are not.
Stumbling into catastrophe?
I want to briefly outline the ‘big picture’ before exploring the effects on our sector.
Whatever the legality of the war, I think there’s a pretty strong consensus amongst many experts and media commentators that the decision to launch attacks on Iran has been, at best, a geopolitical gamble. It has led to a host of rapidly cascading consequences that, no matter what President Trump claims, were widely predicted and even more widely feared.
It’s a truism of systems theory that, in a complex system, you can never do just one thing. Actions have cascading consequences, and there are numerous systems effects rippling out from the Strait.
The obvious disruption is to the oil supply, but approximately a third of the world’s agricultural fertiliser (itself a petrochemical by-product) is also currently not passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This will lead to increased food production costs as the cost of fertiliser is passed on from producers to consumers, or more worryingly food shortages if the flow continues to be disrupted as we approach planting time in the northern hemisphere.
Shipping costs are also rising, as are the costs of the diesel needed to distribute food and other essentials to our national populations. This will increase inflationary pressures on everyone, including our students and staff.
International travel, particularly through transit hubs in the Middle East like Dubai, is being disrupted and rising fuel costs are threatening airline survival. This may have some effect on international student numbers – if only in the short term.
Unfortunately, the dynamics of the Escalation Trap do not create confidence that an end to hostilities, and the resultant systemic disruptions, is close. Sending in US ground troops is likely to only prolong the war, the closure of the Strait, and the resulting global disruptions.
The challenges for students
Many undergraduate tertiary students exist in a liminal ‘grey zone’ between living at home with parents and being engaged in full-time employment.
Here in Aotearoa New Zealand, affordability stresses around accommodation, food and transport have long been concerns. But rising fuel prices and the resulting inflation in essentials like food are already making this worse. Student foodbanks are already running out of food, and students are increasingly finding the commute to campus a challenge.
While students at educational institutions in urban areas that are well served by public transport may face less hardship, those attending regional institutions or in areas where commuting by car is the only real option may find this increasingly too expensive. Furthermore, rising fuel prices will raise the cost of food and other expenses for tertiary students – and this will compound their financial stresses.
The challenge for universities
While the Covid pandemic is the clear model for how to rapidly shift from a face-to-face model to online delivery, things might be different this time. Many students (those with the financial means to continue commuting by car, or with access to public transport) will of course continue attending face-to-face classes and delivery might largely be unaffected for this cohort (if their teachers are also able to attend campus, of course).
In some ways, the continuity of educational delivery could be more difficult for educational providers than during Covid when there was a universal, unavoidable and government-mandated shift to online delivery. All staff and students were in the same boat – but that may not be what is coming this time.
Instead, institutions may face pressure to continue on-campus learning for many students while providing distance learning options for others. Those courses or degrees already offering flexible delivery options will of course find this easier to implement than courses or degrees with exclusively on-campus cohorts.
Without such flexible delivery options a significant number of students currently enrolled in purely on-campus courses may choose to withdraw or pause their education until they are able to once again easily access it.
Covid demonstrated the ability of tertiary providers to adapt quickly (if painfully) in the face of external challenges – it seems as though we are now entering a situation where the continuity of educational delivery is going to require some institutional flexibility.
Are we prepared?
Anthony Richardson is the Team Lead, Teaching Development for Te Puna Ako Centre for Tertiary Teaching and Learning at the University of Waikato in Aotearoa. An experienced tertiary teacher, he is also a sociologist researching the relationship between energy, complex systems and our individual and organisational responses to their fragility.