"The Governor View" - Results and admissions 2023

This summer saw A-level and Scottish Higher results move back to pre-pandemic levels, as predicted, with fewer top grades than in the teacher-assessed years of 2020 and 2021 and the combination set of awards given to sixth-formers last year.

As of 24 August, Universities and Colleges Admission Service (UCAS) figures show overall higher education acceptances were down from 425,830, at this point last year, to 414,940. The proportion of 18-year-olds accepting places dropped from 32.2 to 30.4.

This second successive fall in entry rates has led to some warnings of “strategic uncertainty” in the sector. But governors who spoke to Advance HE point out that post-mortems on admission numbers are better suited to September board meetings when a fuller picture is available.

“That’s the right point to talk about it,” said the governor of a new university in the north of England. “Regardless of the August figures, this year’s admissions round has felt like a return to a slightly more normal and measured year when set against how unusual the last few years have been. I think there’s a bit of a sense of relief that things are panning out as you might expect them to.”

Lower entry rates could well be a sign of some universities being more cautious in their offer-making after the sudden increases in student numbers during the pandemic, according to a governor in London.

“It may well be that institutions have hedged a bit after the huge expansion in 2021-22 when some intakes mushroomed,” he said. “The accommodation issue in London is really acute so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was that balancing.”

He points out that under the Office for Students (OfS) new access and participation risk register, the availability of affordable accommodation for some groups could be identified as a potential threat to equality of opportunity.

A governor of an institution in the northwest also raises the ongoing issue of accommodation shortages.

“Private rents are being taken off the market and big student accommodation providers are not building as many new beds because rising interest rates are making borrowing capital from the market less attractive,” he said. “At the same time universities that own a lot of their own beds are struggling to afford the renovations or make them fit for purpose in a net zero context.”

Another risk to equality of opportunity is cost of living pressures. These continue unabated and could be one of the factors behind the fall in university applications and acceptances.

“We know from the recent student academic survey from Advance HE and the Higher Education Policy Institute that the cost of living crisis is having a real impact on students,” said the governor of a Russell Group university. “Parents are suffering and may not have the money to top up inadequate maintenance loans, so it may be impossible for some young people to afford university.”

Robert Halfon, the universities minister, recently ruled out tuition fee rises on the basis that families are facing too many cost of living challenges. But governors point out that it is paying for maintenance, not fees, that most students are worried about.

“What affects students’ assessment of whether they can afford university is the cost of rent and travel and the prices in the supermarket,” said one.

Other governors point to concerns about the prospect of more lecturers’ strikes in the coming academic year if the University and College Union can secure a mandate, coupled with a buoyant job market that could be attracting some 18-year-olds.

While alternatives to university, such as apprenticeships, receive plenty of media coverage, in reality, the number of higher-level apprenticeships is still very small.

“There are very few 18 and 19-year-olds doing higher level apprenticeships,” said one Russell Group governor. “I know the government wants them to grow but that ultimately depends on employers.

Differences in regional entry rates are also widening – 24.2 per cent of 18-year-olds in the North East were accepted to higher education this year, compared to 39.6 per cent in London. While helping schools raise attainment is a key OfS priority for universities, governors point out that such outreach is expensive and that universities are facing some very difficult decisions about priorities at the moment.

“At a time of financial pressures, it is one of the first things you might cut,” said one. “You are more likely to want to spend scarce resources in areas where the return to investment is very clear, like stopping people who have already enrolled from dropping out.”

Broadening out recruitment may be strategically challenging for universities with a tradition of recruiting locally, according to the governor of a new university.

“For some institutions, it is such a core part of their identity to recruit locally, and if they move away from that they are competing with other institutions,” she said. “That is challenging in any environment and especially when the government is saying it wants universities in those areas to grow the skills that the economy needs.”

What remains to be confirmed is the extent to which overall entry rates will be dominated by more affluent students, who have had less disruption to their schooling and can afford to go to university. UCAS figures show that acceptances for disadvantaged students, measured by POLAR4, were down by about one percentage point on the previous year, although free school meal-eligible participation rates were up slightly.

One governor pointed to a fall in entries in strategically important areas such as nursing (21,130 to 18,300 accepted applicants) and teacher training ( 3,110 to 2,710). In other subjects, such as computer studies, the picture is more positive with applications and acceptances rising. Meanwhile, the continuing decline in the numbers studying modern languages at A-level could have longer-term implications for higher education provision.

A number of governors warned that the incoming cohort of 18-year-olds is likely to have challenges every bit as acute as those joining in the Covid years.

“These students also missed school because of the pandemic and missed out on some of that secondary school socialisation that is so important,” said a London governor. “They have also been impacted by recent teacher strikes. We know that mental health issues among young people are through the roof and they are facing cost of living pressures on top of that.”

A Russell Group board member pointed to the rise in the number of students who have to take on part-time jobs or increase their hours of paid work and the negative impact this can have on study time, engagement and wellbeing.

“If you’re doing a few hours work in a shop or a bar on a weekend, that’s fine but when you get above 15 hours a week, more than two full days of paid work on top of your full-time course, it starts getting out of balance and that is a danger zone,” he said. “If 45 per cent don’t have a job and 55 per cent do, there is going to be a bifurcation of the student experience and that has consequences for engagement and dropout. Governors should care about this because it can impact B3 conditions and responses to the National Student Survey which feeds into league tables.”

Transitional support, student services, mental health provision and hardship funds are all areas of interest for governors when they meet in September.

One governor commented: “Using student analytics so you can reach out to students who are in trouble is important, as is staffing welfare services properly so that people have access to counselling when they need it, without long waiting lists. The third thing is extra-curricular activities which are really important for a sense of belonging and easing off loneliness. But all of those things cost money and universities are getting funded less and less for home students.”

In the run-up to A-level results, a rash of media headlines focused on international student recruitment and suggested that home students were being squeezed out. UCAS data show international student numbers were slightly down in fact (-2 per cent), although these figures do not include those who apply directly to institutions or January intakes.

Governors are clear that income from overseas students is vital to cross-subsidise the falling income from their UK counterparts.

“I’d be surprised if we saw international student numbers going down in the final analysis,” said a post-1992 governor. “They are an important part of the funding picture, as well as the wider benefits they bring. In the current landscape, where home students operate at a loss and research operates at a loss, international students are a crucial part of the mix for most institutions.”