Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) June deadline application figures

UCAS data sets on applications received by the service up to the June deadline show overall application numbers and percentages. These can be broken down by country of provider, domicile of applicant, ethnic group, gender, age, socioeconomic status, subject group, tariff of provider and UK region. A press release has been published to accompany the data.

The data can be found here

The press release can be found here

At-a-glance:

• The overall number of UK 18-year-old applicants has dropped by 2 per cent, down from 326,190 in 2022 to 319,570 in 2023, but is up from 311,010 in 2021 (+2.8 per cent). The proportion of 18-year-olds making an application has dropped from 44.1 per cent to 42.1 per cent
• Applications from disadvantaged UK 18-year-olds (POLAR4 Quintile 1) have decreased by 2.4 per cent to 37,410, but have seen a 7.4 per cent rise since 2021
• The number of international applicants (all ages) has increased by 2.4 per cent and stands at 138,050, up from 130,390 in 2021 (+5.9 per cent). This is largely driven by interest from India, the Middle East and Africa
• Applicants from China are down by 2.2 per cent, which is most likely due to Covid-19 restrictions and disruption to learning
• Lower tariff universities have experienced the biggest percentage drop in overall applications and in UK 18-year-old applications (-4 per cent) but the biggest percentage increase in international student applications (+5 per cent)
• The number of UK 18-year-old ethnic minority applicants has increased by 4.4 per cent to 104,160 and by 16.3 per cent since 2021. The 2 per cent drop in UK 18-year-old applicants is entirely accounted for by a 5 per cent drop in White 18-year-old applicants
• A total of 74,240 UK 18-year-olds (23.2 per cent) have shared their individual circumstances in response to seven new widening participation measures on the UCAS  form, covering those receiving free school meals (43,250); having caring responsibilities (11,590); being estranged (3,200); having a parent in the armed forces (12,450); declaring themselves as a refugee or asylum seeker (2,770); being a parent (890); or having served in the armed forces (90)
• A total of 1,740 people with predicted T-Levels have applied to higher education, up from 490 last year
• The offer rate for UK-18-year-olds stands at 76.2 per cent - up from 73.9 per cent at the same point last year
• UK 18-year-old applications to computing courses have increased by nearly 10 per cent on last year, to 94,870 applications, and have risen by 33 per cent since 2021. It is the 7th most popular course. Overall, there have been 195,690 applications to computing (all ages, all domiciles)
• For computing, there has also been an increase in the number of applications by UK 18-year-olds from the most disadvantaged backgrounds (POLAR 4 Quintile 1) - 11,870 this year, up from 11,110 in 2022 and 8,320 in 2021

Implications for governance:

The 2 per cent drop in UK 18-year-old applications this year interrupts a five-year upward trajectory and is the biggest fall in almost a decade (the only previous year to see a dip, of less than 1,000 teenagers, was 2018).

Lower tariff university figures have fallen more than medium and higher tariff institutions, and applications from disadvantaged UK 18-year-olds (POLAR4 Quintile 1) have decreased by 2.4 per cent.

As governors will know, June application figures can and do change in August. One set of figures does not signify a trend or dictate acceptances. In its press release, however, UCAS highlights the upward trajectory of 18-year-olds throughout the remainder of the decade and forecasts a million higher education applicants by 2030.

Providing context for this year’s figures, UCAS points out that the application cycle is occurring against a “complex backdrop including geopolitics, the economy and job market, and the rising cost of living”. If these concerns are leading some young people to hold off from applying until they have their grades, it could mean more churn for admission teams following results day on 17 August.

An increase in international applications by the June deadline will be welcomed by universities, although governors will note a 2 per cent dip in interest from Chinese students. The figures are set against a backdrop of the continuing debate about home versus international student numbers and the sector's dependency on overseas fees to compensate for loss-making UK undergraduates fees.

In its press release, UCAS focuses on the increased interest in computing courses: computer science (+11 per cent), software engineering (+16 per cent), computer games and animation (+2 per cent) and artificial intelligence (+4 per cent. Rashik Parmar, chief executive of BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT, described demand as “soaring”. The figures suggest that students are becoming increasingly inspired by the rise of digital technology and AI, with advances such as ChatGPT coming onto the market and garnering headlines.

Other subjects to see a rise in applications compared to last year were law, historical, philosophical and religious studies and geography, earth and environmental studies. Subjects with the biggest drop in applications were veterinary science, education and teaching, agriculture, food and related studies, combined and general studies and architecture.

Applications from Black, Asian, mixed and other UK 18-year-olds have jumped by 4.4 per cent this year, suggesting that widening participation initiatives aimed at these groups are working. The overall drop in applications this year is entirely accounted for by a fall in White UK 18-year-old applications of 5 per cent, which could renew concerns about lower participation rates among white working-class teenagers.

Governors will no doubt wish to compare applications to their own institutions from the various groups and to the various subject areas with the national picture emerging at this point in the cycle.

New questions on the UCAS application which allow potential students to indicate their circumstances have been welcomed by the sector. More than 74,000 UK 18-year-olds filled in the questions, giving university widening access teams important contextual information about applicants that can be used in offer making.